Pandemic dilemmas for UK policy makers
The UK government is due to set out its plans for the “gradual and phased” route out of lockdown in just over a week. I've modelled the impact of the various policy options and what they might mean for the travel industry.
Virus variants cast doubt on prospects for a vaccine-led recovery in 2021
Fear of new virus variants has triggered an avalanche of new travel restrictions in the UK. Good progress on vaccinations should enable the lifting of lockdown restrictions, but can it also enable overseas travel to resume?
Winter-sun destinations drive long-haul uptick at Heathrow in December
December passenger statistics for Heathrow demonstrated strong demand for winter sun destinations, with long-haul performance overtaking short-haul for the first time since the pandemic started.
Modelling the UK pandemic in 2021
With the pandemic “out of control” in the UK, how might things develop over the rest of 2021? I constructed a model and generated some forecasts.
Implications of the new virus strain for aviation
A new, more transmissive strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been identified in the UK. What are the potential implications for aviation worldwide?
A quick update on passenger volumes in Europe
Normal seasonal weakness has combined with lock-downs in Europe to deliver rock-bottom passenger volumes in November. How are the big hubs doing compared to the low-cost carriers?
Airline industry predictions for 2021
2020 has been the worst ever year for the aviation industry, but the arrival of vaccines is finally providing some grounds for optimism about 2021. What might we expect to see next year? I've made a few predictions.
Middle Eastern aviation, a turning point?
After years of huge growth and investment, the big Middle Eastern airlines are being forced to cut capacity and costs in response to the collapse in their markets. With no domestic market to fall back on, will the pandemic mark a turning point in their fortunes?
Another setback for aviation in Africa
Africa has long punched below its weight in the global aviation industry. Before the pandemic, some African airlines had started to realise that potential and the region was one of the fastest growing regions. How are things looking now?
European air traffic recovery snuffed out by second wave
Passenger numbers from the key European airports reveal the extent to which demand fell away in September compared to August.
Lessons from the UK domestic aviation market
What lessons can we learn about the post COVID aviation world from looking at the experience so far in the UK domestic market?
The changing shape of the UK airline market
The UK airline market has changed radically from last year, not only in terms of overall demand but also in terms of which routes have held up better. Which are the biggest markets today and how does that compare to the pre COVID picture?
European traffic in August, as good as it gets for now?
The August numbers are in for European passenger volumes. Things are improving, but can it last?
What are the prospects for a recovery in business travel?
The business travel market has been hit hard by the pandemic. What are the prospects for a recovery, both in the short and the long-term?
Playing the UK’s quarantine lottery
Countries seem to drop on and off the UK government’s 14 day quarantine list in an apparently unpredictable way. I looked at some of the underlying case rate statistics to see if we can predict what changes might be coming next.
Tracking the recovery in European airline demand
European airlines have been adding back capacity since June, but has passenger demand kept up? And who are the leaders and laggards amongst Europe’s big hub airports?
A quick update on the London - Spain market
A week is a long time in today’s airline business. I check in again on how UK airlines are faring on flights to Spain as they ramp up schedules post relaxation of the lock-down.
A spot of sunshine amidst the COVID-19 airline gloom?
With Spain once again open for business for lock down weary British tourists, could this also provide some financial relief for the UK's cash starved airlines? With assistance from data guru Pablo Fernandez, I took a look at what we can pick out from the data.
Air travel demand post COVID
What will air travel demand look like over the next year? If we believe what consumers are telling us, it might be stronger than we think.