A big move in the battle for New York

American Airlines and JetBlue have just announced a long rumoured codeshare and frequent flyer deal, subject to the usual regulatory clearance requirements.

There has been speculation about such a deal for a long time, because it makes a lot of strategic sense for both carriers. It brings together the number three and four domestic players in the most important market in the USA. Using seat share from calendar 2019, together they would have 31% of the New York domestic market, moving them into a leadership position just ahead of Delta’s 30% and United’s 27% seat share.

Share of seats from JFK, EWR and LGA in calendar 2019. Source: OAG

It is also likely to be significant for the global alliances and in particular the transatlantic joint ventures. As well as the domestic figures, the chart above also shows seat share from New York to Europe. I have included each US carrier’s alliance partners in their share (for example American’s figures include IAG and Finnair, Delta’s include Air France - KLM and Virgin).

Oneworld has always had a bigger share of transatlantic traffic from New York than American had domestically. This was mainly thanks to British Airways, which by itself is the number three player on Europe to New York. The deal between American and JetBlue should bring the domestic position of American and its partners much more in line with their transatlantic share.

Of course it remains to be seen what 2021 capacity and market shares will look like. But this deal seems to me to significantly improve the chances that when the dust settles, New York will remain a three way battle, rather than what was beginning to look like a Delta stronghold.